WAYNE COUNTY OHIO 2000 – 2020 GENERAL ELECTIONS DATA SUMMARY & ANALYSIS POPULATION/CENSUS: Wayne County estimated population between 2000 and 2020 increased ever so slightly, beginning at around 111,700 in July 2000 and ending at 116,900 in July 2020, a 5,200 (less than 5%) increase over 20 years which averages to around 260 increase in population a year. Estimated population actually decreased in 6 of the 20 years. Note that 2020 Official Census has not yet been received, but the Official population may very well be less than 2020 estimated population due to the recent statement that 2020 Ohio Census had a 176,000 overcount. VOTING AGE POPULATION (AGE 18+): Age 18 and over estimated population of Wayne County averages 75% of the total estimated population in Wayne County in years 2010 – 2015, and 76% of the total estimated population in years 2016 – 2020. Age 18 and over estimated population prior to 2010 is not readily available online, so 75% is used as a basis of population in years 2000 – 2015 and 76% in 2016 – 2020. Voting Age (Age 18 and over) estimated population increased by around 4,900 between 2000 and 2020, which averages 243 increase in estimated voting age population per year. REGISTERED VOTERS: Wayne County Registered Voters 2000-2020 changed from around 62,000 to 74,000, an increase of 12,000 voters, averaging around 600 new registered voters per year, more than twice the Age 18 and over voting population increase of less than 5,000 between 2000-2020 or 243 per year. There were around 7,000 more Wayne County citizens that registered to vote between 2000 and 2020 than the increase in population during the same time period. There are factors outside of voting age citizens changes in Wayne County that are driving the large increase in registered voter numbers. What are those factors? Online Wayne County Board of Election “Official Results” of Registered Voters do not match Secretary of State “Official Canvass” in 8 of 11 years reported; in all cases the SOS results are lower than BOE results. Why is there a difference? One of the “Official” results is obviously incorrect; which is incorrect – Secretary of State “Official Canvass”, or “Wayne County Board of Election “Official Results”? INCREASE IN REGISTERED VOTERS IN THE PAST 20 YEARS: Registered Voter counts changed by thousands in many years, while the census voting age population estimate changed by hundreds in the same period. ◦ 1999 – 2000 SOS registered voter change +3,816 ◦ 2000 – 2001 SOS registered voter change -4,238 ◦ 2003 – 2004 SOS registered voter change +8,124 ◦ 2007 – 2008 SOS registered voter change +4,388 ◦ 2011 – 2012 SOS registered voter change +2,341 ◦ 2013 – 2014 SOS registered voter change -4,739 ◦ 2015 – 2016 SOS registered voter change +2,349 Why are there such large increases and decreases in Registered Voters year to year, especially when the overall voting age population estimates incur small changes year to year? There are two years in which Registered Voters decreased by more than 4,000, which appears to be following the 2000 presidential election and after the 2012 presidential election. Why does it appear to be large Registered Voter purges AFTER presidential elections rather than maintaining clean Registered Voter files year to year? VOTING AGE POPULATION TO REGISTERED VOTERS COMPARISON: Wayne County registered voters increased from a low of 69% of voting age estimated census in 2001 to 90% of voting age estimated census in 2012. Why the large increases in Registered Voters leading up to 2012? Is it reasonable that 9 out of every 10 voting age estimated census citizens in Wayne County were registered to vote in 2012 and over 8 in 10 voting age estimated census citizens were registered to vote in the past 15 years in which online records are available? ◦ Registered voters = 69% -75% of voting age estimated census in years 2000 – 2003 ◦ Registered voters = 80% – 82% of voting age estimated census in years 2004 – 2007 ◦ Registered voters = 85% - 90% of voting age estimated census in years 2008 – 2012 ◦ Registered voters = 83% - 86% of voting age estimated census in years 2013 – 2020 PRESIDENTIAL YEAR GENERAL ELECTION BALLOTS COUNTED: There were close to 10,000 more Ballots Counted in 2004 than in 2000. There were over 8,000 more Registered Voters in 2004 than in 2003. Voting Age population increased by 1,100 between 2000 and 2004. Between 2004 and 2016, Ballots Counted decreased by 1,800 while registered voters increased almost 4,000 in year 2008, 2,300 in year 2012 and 2,300 in year 2016. Voting age population increased a little over 3,000 in the same time period. Ballots Counted increased by 4,000 between 2016 and 2020 while registered voters decreased by 300 and voting age population increased by around 500. Why are there such large differences year to year between Census, Registered Voters and Ballots Counted? PRESIDENTIAL YEAR GENERAL ELECTION REGISTERED VOTER TURNOUT: Wayne County Voter Turnout in 2000, 2012 and 2016 presidential elections ranged from 66% to 69%, which included 52% - 60% of Voting Age population estimates for those years. Voter Turnout in 2008 presidential election was 72%. Voter turnout in 2020 presidential election was 74%. Voter turnout in 2004 presidential election was 76%. In 2004, 2008 and 2020, 62% of the Voting Age population voted; more than 6 out of every 10 Wayne County Voting Age citizen voted which was between 53,000 and 55,000 out of 85,000 and 89,000 Voting Age population. PRESIDENTIAL YEAR ELECTION DAY COMPARED TO ABSENTEE BALLOTS COUNTED: In 2008, there were 45,908 Election Day (87%), 6,281 Absentee (12%) Ballots and a total of 52,894 Ballots Counted. In 2012, there were 34,988 Election Day (68%), 15,459 Absentee (30%) Ballots and a total of 51,562 Ballots Counted. There was an increase of over 9,000 Absentee ballots compared to 2008. In 2016, there were 34,340 Election Day (68%), 15,700 Absentee (31%) Ballots and a total of 50,845 Ballots Counted. In 2020, there were 22,785 Election Day (42%), 31,173 Absentee (57%) Ballots and a total of 54,848 Ballots Counted. There were more than double the number of Absentee Ballots in COVID-19 Pandemic year 2020 than 2016. PRESIDENTIAL YEAR REJECTED BALLOTS COUNTED: Rejected Absentee Ballots accounted for .3% - .4% of total Absentee Ballots in 2008, 2012 and 2020. Rejected Absentee Ballots were double this amount at .8% in 2016. Rejected Provisional Ballots accounted for 9% of total Provisional Ballots in 2012 and 2016, 12% in 2004, 13% in 2008 and 14% in 2020. PRESIDENTIAL VOTES: There was a large jump of 9,400 ballots with Presidential Votes in 2004 compared to 2000. This corresponds to 9,500 more Ballots Counted between in 2004 than 2000 and 8,000 more Registered Voters in 2004 than 2003, when Voting Age population only increased by less than 1,000 between 2000 and 2004. 98% of Ballots Counted had Presidential Votes in 2000, 2004 and 2016, while 99% of Ballots Counted had Presidential Votes in 2008, 2012 and 2020. Online Wayne County Board of Election “Official Results” of President Votes do not match Secretary of State “Official Canvass” in 3 of 4 years reported. Differences range from 101 to 364 votes; in all cases the SOS results are lower than BOE results. Why is there a difference? One of the “Official” results is obviously incorrect; which is incorrect – Secretary of State “Official Canvass”, or “Wayne County Board of Election “Official Results”? How can the people of Ohio be confident that their votes count with discrepancies in Presidential Vote totals on “Official” reports by government offices? Democrat President Votes increased 5,000 in 2004 and decreased almost 5,000 in 2016. Democrat President Votes changed less than 2,000 votes in 2008, 2012 and 2020. Democrat President Votes ranged from 30% in 2016 to 42% in 2008. Republican President Votes increased 6,000 in 2004, decreased 2,500 in 2008, increased by 1000 in 2012, increased by 2,000 in 2016 and increased by 4,500 in 2020. Republican President Votes ranged from 56% in 2008 to 68% in 2020. Other President Votes were 2,552 (5% of total President Votes) in 2016, 4% of total President Votes in 2000, and around 2% of total President Votes in 2004, 2008 and 2020. Other President Votes were only 183 (.4%) of total President Votes in 2004, the same year both Democrat and Republican President Votes increased significantly. 2020 Wayne County BOE reports: • Democrat Election Day President Votes = 3,698 (22%) of all Democrat President Votes • Democrat Absentee President Votes = 12,714 (76%) of all Democrat President Votes • Democrat Provisional Votes = 248 (1%) of all Democrat President Votes • Republican Election Day President Votes = 18,456 (50%) of all Republican President Votes • Republican Absentee President Votes = 17,704 (48%) of all Republican President Votes • Republican Provisional Votes = 599 (26%) of all Democrat President Votes Over three-quarters of all Democrat President Votes were received by Absentee Ballots while just under half of all Republican President Votes were received by Absentee Ballots. There is no corresponding SOS Report. PRECINCTS: In the year 2000, Wayne County had 100 precincts. The number of precincts decreased over the next 20 years to 67 precincts in 2020. Why the decrease of 33 precincts, one-third of the total number of year 2000 precincts? PRECINCT REGISTERED VOTERS: Precincts have been identified that vary significantly from county averages: • Average Registered Voters in Wayne County decreased by less than one-half of a percent (.4%) in 2020 compared to 2016. 10 precincts had Registered Voter changes that exceeded 5%, some as high as 14% increases and 16% decreases. Was there extreme growth in the precincts with high Registered Voter increases? Was there extreme decline in population in the precincts with high Registered Voter decreases? What other factors affected the large change in Registered Voters compared to the average? • Wayne County averaged 66% Voter Turnout in 2012; there were 9 precincts with over 75% Voter Turnout. More than 75 out of 100 registered voters voted in these 9 precincts in 2012. • Wayne County averaged 68% Voter Turnout in 2016; there were 21 precincts with over 75% Voter Turnout. More than 75 out of 100 registered voters voted in 21 precincts in 2016. • Wayne County averaged 74% Voter Turnout in 2020, which is a 6% increase over 2016 Voter Turnout and 7% increase over 2012 Voter Turnout. 20 precincts had over 80% Voter Turnout; more than 80 of 100 registered voters voted in 20 precincts in 2020. One precinct had less than 30% Voter Turnout. • Average Ballots Counted in Wayne County increased 8% in 2020 compared to 2016. 6 precincts had a 14% or higher increase in Ballots Counted. One precinct had a 35% decline in Ballots Counted. • Wayne County averaged 39% Democrat President Votes in 2012; 13 precincts had over 50% Democrat President Votes in 2012; 1 precinct had over 75% Democrat President Votes in 2012. • Wayne County averaged 30% Democrat President Votes in 2016; 4 precincts had over 50% Democrat President Votes in 2016; 1 precinct had over 73% Democrat President Votes in 2016. • Wayne County averaged 31% Democrat President Votes in 2020; 3 precincts had over 50% Democrat President Votes in 2016; 1 precinct had more than double the number of Democrat President Votes than the county average. • Wayne County averaged 59% Republican President Votes in 2012; 6 precincts had less than 40% Republican President Votes in 2012. • Wayne County averaged 64% Republican President Votes in 2016; 6 precincts had less than 50% Republican President Votes in 2016. • Wayne County averaged 68% Republican President Votes in 2020; 5 precincts had less than 50% Republican President Votes in 2020. • Wayne County had 14% average President Vote change to Republican from 2016 to 2020. 5 precincts had less than 5% President Vote change to Republican between 2016 to 2020. Since Trump had millions more votes in 2020 than 2016 countrywide, precincts with less votes for Trump in 2020 than 2016 would be unusual. 2 precincts had less votes for Trump in 2020 than 2016. PRECINCTS THAT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY TO AVERAGE STATISTICS: The following 33 precincts have been identified to vary significantly on more than one average statistic described above. This is around half of all current precincts in the county. These precincts would be good candidates for deeper dives and canvassing for potential fraud: ◦ Orrville City 4-B ◦ Rittman City 1 ◦ Wooster City 1-A ◦ Wooster City 1-B ◦ Wooster City 1-C ◦ Wooster City 2-B ▪ This precinct is especially unique: • 2012 RegisVotr 1788, ballot count 765, DEM Pres 577, REP Pres 177 • 2016 RegisVotr 1840, ballot count 693, DEM Pres 508, REP Pres 145 ◦ big increase in RegisVotr, but decrease in ballot count for both Dem & REP • 2020 RegVotr 1705, ballot count 448, DEM PRES 304, REP Pres 138 ◦ Big drop in RegVotr; bigger drop in Democrat voters ◦ Wooster City 2-C ◦ Wooster City 2-D ◦ Wooster City 3-A ◦ Wooster City 3-B ◦ Wooster City 3-C ◦ Wooster City 4-A ◦ Wooster City 4-B ◦ Wooster City 4-C ◦ Wooster City 4-D ◦ Baughman Twp 1 ◦ Canaan Twp 1 ◦ Canaan Twp 2 ◦ Chester Twp 1 ◦ Chippewa Twp 5/Town ◦ Clinton Twp 1 ◦ Franklin Twp 2 ◦ Green Twp 1 ◦ Green Twp 3 Smithville ◦ Milton Twp 1 ◦ Paint Twp 1 ◦ Plain Twp 2 ◦ Sugar Creek Twp 1 ◦ Sugar Creek Twp 2 ◦ Wayne Twp 2 ◦ Wayne Twp 3 ◦ Wooster Twp 1 ◦ Wooster Twp 2 SOURCES: census.gov, ohiosos.gov, waynecountyoh.gov NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER: Numbers may be rounded to the nearest thousand or hundred for simplicity. 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